College football Week 6 expert predictions, odds: Oklahoma, Texas renew Red River Rivalry, Penn State heads to Iowa (2024)

In just under a month, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will reveal its first set of rankings for 2021. That means the clock is ticking for several teams. Only twice has a program been invited to the Playoff after opening lower than ninth in the first CFP poll of the year.

If you think creating that first poll is going to be easy, think again. Nine teams in the AP top 25 lost last week, including four of the top 10. Hectic? Absolutely. But that was just another week in college football. Alabama and Georgia put a pair of SEC up-and-comers in their respective places. Ohio State and Oklahoma appear to be rounding into form, while Cincinnati and Iowa continue to show that they belong.

This week, the Hawkeyes have one of the toughest bouts, hosting Penn State in a battle of top-5 teams. That could potentially be a preview of the Big Ten Championship game. Some 800-plus miles south, Oklahoma and Texas renew the Red River Rivalry for one of its final chapters in the Big 12. Here are the lines, spreads, totals and money lines for some of the top games of Week 6 in college football.

All times Eastern. All odds from BetMGM. Please note expert picksareagainst the spread. Not straight up.

Stanford at No. 22 Arizona State — 10:30 p.m. Friday on ESPN

The Sun Devils find themselves back in the top 25 after a 42-23 win over then-No. 20 UCLA. After the second quarter featured 41 total points, Arizona State shut the Bruins out in the second half. The offense remained balanced, finishing with a season-best 42 points and racked up 458 yards at a clip of 9.2 per play. ASU also had its 10th consecutive game with at least 150 rushing yards. The Sun Devils host Stanford at home on the short week, opening as heavy favorites here.

There might not be a more significant upset in the Pac-12 this year than Stanford’s overtime 31-24 win over then-No. 3 Oregon. The Cardinal were outgained 414-354, committed 10 penalties and converted five of 14 third downs. But Stanford also came away with several critical red zone stops, a promising sign when its red zone defense ranks 101st among FBS teams. Oregon had three drives of 10 or more plays last week and didn’t score a touchdown on any of them. Stanford will likely need to score to stick with the Sun Devils this week. ASU allows the seventh-fewest passing yards in college football, which could be trouble for Tanner McKee. Friday’s game could call for a heavier dose of Nathaniel Peat.

Expert picks against the spread

No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss — Noon Saturday on ESPN

It seems safe to call this a battle of the SEC’s second tier. Both Arkansas and Mississippi were early season darlings before getting a reality check last week from Georgia and Alabama. With the conference juggernauts likely to occupy one to two spots in the CFP, this matchup could play a hand in the New Year’s Six bowl picture. Mississippi opened as the favorites at home.

The Rebels are coming off a 42-21 loss to Alabama, but the Rebels still have the No. 5 scoring offense in college football, averaging 44.8 points and 549.2 yards per game. As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks were shut out 37-0 by the Bulldogs and still rank top-10 in total defense. The Hogs are among the nation’s top teams against the pass, while the Rebels struggled to stop the run against Alabama.

Expert picks against the spread

No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 21 Texas in Dallas – Noon Saturday on ABC

It’s time for the next installment of one of the oldest rivalries in college football. Oklahoma and Texas play for the 117th time on Saturday, with the Sooners opening as favorites. Oklahoma’s won three straight against Texas and nine of the past 12 meetings, including a 53-45 quadruple-overtime thriller last year.

OU held at sixth in the polls following a 37-31 win over Kansas State. The Sooners led by three at the half and extended the lead against KSU with touchdowns on their first two drives of the second half, though they needed to withstand a late rally to snap a two-game losing skid Wildcats. Spencer Rattler had one of his most accurate games to date, completing 22-of-25 passes for 243 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

Texas’ offense cooled down after scoring 128 total points in two weeks, but it still managed in a 32-27 win over TCU. The Longhorns have fully committed to the run game under Steve Sarkisian, toting the ball 53 times against TCU, compared to 22 passing attempts. Bijan Robinson led the ground game with a career-high 35 carries and turned it into 216 yards and two touchdowns. Texas owns college football’s No. 5 rushing attack and faces its toughest test yet in Oklahoma’s No. 7 run defense. We could see more of Casey Thompson this week, but something’s going to have to give in Dallas.

Expert picks against the spread

No. 2 Georgia at No. 18 Auburn – 3:30 p.m. Saturday on CBS

It would appear that Georgia is on a collision course with the CFP at this point. The Bulldogs throttled a top-10 team in Arkansas, 37-0, without their starting quarterback available. Stetson Bennett got the start behind center, but it was all about the run game, which finished with 273 yards and three scores. James Cook led the way with 87 yards while Zamir White added 68 yards and two touchdowns. White picked up a third score after recovering a blocked punt in the end zone. Georgia’s defense continues to dominate, too. It held the Razorbacks to 162 total yards and forced nearly as many three-and-outs (7) as Arkansas had first downs (9). The Bulldogs are heavily favored heading to Auburn.

The Tigers moved to 4-1 on the year after escaping defeat for the second straight week. Most recently, Bo Nix, Jarquez Hunter and Bydarrius Knighten propelled Auburn past LSU, 24-19. Nix returned to his starting spot after being benched against Georgia State to throw for 255 yards and a touchdown with another 74 yards and a second score on the ground. Hunter broke a 44-yard run on the game-winning drive and later capped the possession with a one-yard run for the go-ahead score. Knighten sealed the win with a game-clinching interception of Max Johnson. As for this week, the Tigers’ run defense could give Georgia some trouble while their top-20 offense might fare better than the Bulldogs’ first five opponents. But there were plenty of positive things to say about Arkansas last week, and look how that turned out.

Expert picks against the spread

Boise State at No. 10 BYU – 3:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC

BYU’s early-season conquering of the Pac-12 will help with its postseason aspirations. Still, it’ll need to keep winning to keep pace with fellow Group of Five powers Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. The Cougars turn their attention to Boise State this week following a 34-20 win over Utah State. Tyler Allgeier had a career-high 218 rushing yards in the win, while Baylor Romney threw for 187 yards and a touchdown in his second start of the year. BYU’s 468 yards of offense are a season-high, and it’ll look to stay unbeaten when it hosts Boise State this week. The Cougars opened as the favorites and get Jaren Hall back after their starting quarterback missed time with a rib injury.

Andy Avalos is still looking for his first notable win at Boise State. He’s come close against UCF, Oklahoma State and now Nevada, with all three losses having a common denominator — an inability to execute in the second half. The Broncos have led at the half against UCF and Nevada and been outscored 43-17 in the second half of its losses. Against Nevada, Boise State turned the ball over three times in the final 30 minutes, and the Wolf Pack turned two into 10 points. Hank Bachmeier had a strong showing, throwing for 388 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll likely need another to keep the Broncos competitive with BYU, who can be susceptible to big games by opposing quarterbacks.

Expert picks against the spread

No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa – 4 p.m. Saturday on FOX

Iowa-Penn State could be a potential game of the year candidate in the Big Ten, though the people of Columbus and Ann Arbor will almost certainly attempt to change our minds later on this season. Both the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions have rolled over most of their competition to this point and sit in the top-5 of the AP poll.

Iowa is favored after the Hawkeyes made a statement last week in their 51-14 rout of Maryland. Iowa forced seven (!) turnovers and proved that its best offense is often the field position provided by its defense. Of Iowa’s nine scoring drives, only two were longer than 60 yards. Spencer Petras threw for 259 yards and three touchdowns last week, but don’t expect a lot of points on Saturday. Iowa and Penn State own two of the top five scoring defenses.

Penn State improved to 5-0 with a 24-0 win over Indiana. It was the fewest PSU has scored since its opener, but Sean Clifford threw three passing touchdowns and picked up 236 total yards, nearly outgaining the Hoosiers on his own. The defense also did more than enough to compensate for a quiet offensive night, forcing its eighth and ninth takeaways while holding IU to 264 total yards and three third-down conversions on 14 attempts.

Expert picks against the spread

No. 9 Michigan at Nebraska – 7:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC

The Wolverines are back in the top 10 for the first time since 2019, fresh off a 38-17 win at Wisconsin. Michigan won their first game in Madison in 20 years behind a three-turnover afternoon from the defense and two touchdowns apiece by Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy. Last week was the first time McNamara had to attempt more than 16 passes after Wisconsin held the UM run game in check. Michigan opened as favorites against Nebraska.

The Huskers improved to 3-3 after a 56-7 drubbing of Northwestern. Nebraska erupted for a season-high 657 yards, with 427 on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns. Defensively, it held Northwestern to 37 rushing yards, which is a positive sign going into a matchup with a Michigan team that likes to run the ball. It also bodes well if you’re taking the Huskers to cover, given how they control the clock. But if you’re feeling the upset, the Huskers have three wins over top-10 teams when they’re unranked, most recently in 2015.

Expert picks against the spread

LSU at No. 16 Kentucky – 7:30 p.m. Saturday on SEC Network

Kentucky is ranked once again after a short stint in 2020. The Wildcats surged into the AP poll after a 20-13 upset of then-No.10 Florida. What stood out from this win, in particular, was the Wildcats pulling out the win despite totaling 224 yards of offense, converting one third down and holding the ball for fewer than 24 minutes. UK made the most of its opportunities in the second half with Trevin Wallace returning a blocked field goal for a touchdown and Chris Rodriguez Jr. running for another big score in the fourth quarter. UK opened as home favorites over LSU.

The Tigers fell at home, 24-19, against Auburn as Max Johnson’s streak of three-touchdown games ended. LSU conceded the game’s final 14 points after building a 19-10 lead. Johnson topped 300 passing yards again, but the lack of a run game with 33 yards on 25 carries was costly. The Tigers will try to get back on track against Kentucky, a team it hasn’t lost to since 2007.

Expert picks against the spread

No. 14 Notre Dame at Virginia Tech – 7:30 p.m. Saturday on ACC Network

Notre Dame is coming off its first loss of the year, falling 24-13 against Cincinnati. Jack Coan and Tyler Buchner threw interceptions for two of the Irish’s three turnovers as the offense finished with 341 total yards. It was a result that’ll hurt ND later in the year, given its independent status. But the Irish still have several remaining games against Power Five opponents, including this week at Virginia Tech. The Irish opened as the betting favorites on the road, but the odds have since flipped to make the Hokies a small favorite.

Virginia Tech was off last week and has fallen off a bit since an impressive season-opener. The Hokies lost at West Virginia three weeks ago and followed up with an uninspiring performance in a 21-10 win against Richmond. VT has one game with more than 21 points this season while it’s been held under 350 yards in three of four games. To keep up with the Irish, the Hokies’ offense will likely need more.

Expert picks against the spread

No. 1 Alabama at Texas A&M – 8 p.m. Saturday on CBS

Alabama continued its unbeaten season with a 42-21 romp over Mississippi. Don’t let the final score fool you, two late touchdowns made it respectable for the Rebels in what was a dominant showing by the Tide. Alabama held the ball for almost 38 minutes and piled on 451 total yards. The biggest statistic of note was the 176 rushing yards gained and four touchdowns scored by Brian Robinson Jr. The senior running back gave Alabama a 100 yard-rusher for the second consecutive week, adding some consistency on the ground to an offense that is already plenty potent. Alabama is heavily favored on the road this week at Texas A&M.

A&M had this game circled since Dec. 20, 2020, when the Aggies were left out of the CFP with one loss last year, albeit a crushing defeat to Alabama. Two early losses in 2021 derailed the Aggies’ postseason plans much earlier than expected. After losing back-to-back games, Texas A&M needs a win or, at the very least, a competitive showing to show that it’s not preparing to free fall in the SEC West.

Expert picks against the spread

(Photo of Spencer Rattler: Brian Bahr / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)