Precursor
The Warriors will enter free agency tomorrow with the future of their roster still in somewhat of a state of limbo. They will have until mid-day tomorrow to either guarantee Chris Paul’s salary if they can find a deal utilizing it or waive him and lose that salary slot. The result of that situation will give us a better understanding of how the Warriors will approach the free agency as well as what sort of spending power they would have (NTMLE+BAE vs TMLE), but ahead of that I thought it would be useful to look at free agency in a broader scope and see what might be available to them regardless of scenario.
Expectations
The Warriors with or without Chris Paul, will at least be entering free agency with 11 players under contract for a total of $147.2M in salary. This is already $6.2M over the NBA’s projected $141M salary cap, so unless the Warriors start dumping salary to teams with cap space they, themselves, will not have any this summer. Even if they sent Andrew Wiggins’s $26.3M to the Detroit Pistons for nothing they would only open $20M in cap space and would have to renounce the rights to Klay Thompson to make use of it. So, it's not a practical option for the Warriors.
We also know, by virtue of agreeing to a trade in principle to acquire the draft rights to Quinten Post from the Portland Trail Blazers for cash considerations, the Warriors have hard-capped themselves at the second tax apron for the following season. Meaning their total salary cannot surpass the $189.5M apron threshold at any point in the season.
So the Warriors’ total salary is going to fall somewhere between that starting $147.2M and the restricted ceiling of $189.5M. Where they plan to have it fall, will have some serious implications.
Above 1st Apron-Below 2nd Apron ($178.7M-$189.5M)
If the Warriors choose to operate in this apron range and have a total salary that surpasses the first tax apron line of a projected $178.7M they will only have access to the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($5.2M) as a tool to sign free agents, that they have to fit into that 2nd Apron hard cap. Additionally, teams above the first tax apron cannot take back more salary (even a ¢ over) than what they send out so if the Warriors were to complete a trade like that this summer their hard cap would downgrade from the second apron level to the first apron level, restricting them to a total salary of $178.7M.
Above Tax Level-Below 1st Apron ($171.3M-$178.7M)
If the Warriors choose to operate in this apron range they will have access to both the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($12.9M) and the Bi-Annual Exception ($4.7M) to use to sign free agents that has to fit below that restricted first apron level. Additionally, as detailed above they are free to complete trades here that brings them back more salary than they send out as long as it complies with the salary matching rules and doesn’t lead to their resulting total salary surpassing that first apron figure
Above Cap Space-Below Tax Level ($141M-$171.3M)
Going a little lower, all the things mentioned above would still apply to the Warriors in this range, with no additional perks, other than for the simple fact they wouldn’t have any salary to pay tax on. An option that was mentioned by Lacob earlier this year, but not one they have shown a commitment to prioritizing.
I touched more on the reasoning and benefits behind potentially staying in this range in my off-season guide.
The bottom line with all of these ranges is essentially: the more you spend the fewer tools you have to spend and the more restrictions are imposed.
Team Needs
It can be argued the Warriors need a significant shake-up to the roster. A high-caliber player or two. Ideally a star-level or at least capable #2 scoring option to take the load of Steph Curry.
They’re not finding that in free agency.
However, what they should look to address in this area is their depth issues. They have some nice young pieces in the fold, but they currently lack capable veterans who can stay on the floor and provide them with consistent supplementary minutes.
Their last two summers haven’t gone well with addressing that need. JaMychal Green? Dario Šarić? Cory Joseph? All duds. Hopefully, this time around they can find more success, and having better tools available to entice free agents will help with that.
Specifically, looking at the roster makeup the main priority should be addressing the hole at center. Trayce Jackson-Davis had a great rookie campaign and can be counted on to be a valuable part of their center rotation, but counting him at the main focal point flanked by regressing Kevon Looney and rookie Quinten Post, is too much to ask of the second-year player.
Ideally, the Warriors can bring in a starting-caliber center that meshes well with their playstyle. More realistically, they at the very least need to bring in a capable rotation-level big man that can supplement TJD and offer them an additional option off the bench.
We’ve seen the success that the Dallas Mavericks just had with two high-level rotational centers in Daniel Gafford and Derrick Lively. A slight return to the rotating carousel of centers the Warriors deployed during the dynasty era wouldn't exactly be the worst thing.
The type of player they will be looking for is someone who can stretch the floor (at least to the mid-range), read and react within their offense, set up cutters out of the post, and not be a liability defensively.
Another area of need the Warriors need to address is depth on the wings. Specifically looking at bringing in an OPJ-type connective shooter with size who can play both forward spots.
Additionally, they could make use of a bench scorer, who can come in and give them a couple of buckets while Curry is off the floor.
And a traditional, floor general type of point guard to complement budding combo-guard Podziemski and run pick-and-rolls with TJD and Kuminga in the second unit (in the vein they did with CP3 this past off-season).
Although after the disaster that was Cory Joseph (and in a life before that, Brad Wanamaker), the Warriors might return to addressing that need through a Two-Way slot. They already have two point guards rostered at those slots in returning Pat Spencer and rookie Reece Beekman.
In-House Options
Klay Thompson (UFA)
Dario Šarić (UFA)
Lester Quiñones (UFA)
Usman Garuba (RFA-eligible)
Jerome Robinson (RFA-eligible)
Nico Mannion (RFA-eligible)
Outwardly, members of the organization publically have expressed a strong desire to bring Klay Thompson. Inwardly, based on reporting it doesn’t seem like Thompson has been a big priority for them with no offer on the table as they peruse the trade market in search of roster upgrades. Regardless of what the Warriors end up doing through trades, Thompson is not the caliber of player you can easily bring in through an available exception, so they will definitely explore a reunion in free agency this summer. He might not like the numbers they present though…
After Thompson, the most interesting name to watch is Quiñones. The Warriors declined to tender him a $2.3M qualifying offer in order to turn him into a restricted free agent. Clearly they did not feel strongly about returning him and will allow him to freely test the market for the best day. They still hold his early bird rights and he is also two-way eligible so there’s optionality with bringing him back, if he can tack on somewhere else.
Mannion will have his qualifying offer tendered because it’s just a two-way deal, but he will not be playing for Golden State next season.
Šarić, Garuba, and Robinson I touched on more extensively in my off-season guide. Don’t expect any of them back.
Candidates
Analysis
Tier -1 | No Chance: Lebron James, James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Isaiah Hartenstein, Saddiq Bey
Tier 0 | Priced Out: Miles Bridges, Gary Trent Jr., Buddy Hield, Jonas Valanciunas, Luke Kennard, Caleb Martin
These are players that should be out of the Warriors' price range, however, if any of them were to become available for the NTMLE, they should be options to seriously consider (although I would take some issue with a Bridges signing…).
Tier 1 | Non-Taxpayer MLE: Tobias Harris, Kyle Anderson, Jalen Smith, De’Anthony Melton, Derrick Jones Jr., Alec Burks, Markelle Fultz, Monte Morris, Tyus Jones,
Harris has racked up a pretty poor reputation after numerous subpar performances for the 76ers while eating up a significant chunk of their payroll. However, despite his bad rep it’s not hard to imagine Harris fit with the Warriors in a reduced role coming off the bench. Only 32 years young, the 6’8 forward has the requisite size the Warriors covet for a wing along with the shooting prowess to match, hit 37% from deep over his career span. Is it too much to ask for him to try to replicate the success Otto Porter Jr. had with the Warriors? He probably at least has a similar chip on his shoulder.
Anderson had a good season for the contending Timberwolves and will likely be re-signed, but if he shakes loose would be a very intriguing pickup for the Warriors. While not exactly the OPJ profile of shooting wing they’re looking for, Anderson is a big forward with a very cerebral game. He would fit in pretty seamlessly with his ability as a passer, high-level decision-making, tone-setting playstyle, and ability to be an around-the-basket scorer and play-finisher.
Smith declined his $5.4M player option with the Indiana Pacers in search of a larger deal this summer. He’s had a slow burn of a start to his career as a former lottery pick, but at 24 has been developing into a formidable rotation-level big man. He shot an eye-catching 42% from deep this past season (on 144 attempts), but it remains to be seen how much of a statistical fluke that was and if his shot will hold. Regardless Smith is intriguing as a young and athletic play-finisher, who sets strong screens and can be impactful on the defensive end as a shot-blocker. He’s not a perfect fit for the Warriors as he’s more of a stretch 4, than he is an out-and-out 5, the position they would likely play him. But would be a different option they could plug and play in certain lineups, although the price might be more than what the Warriors would value him for.
Melton has been a popular mid-tier free agent among analysts online. I think his skillset would overlap a little too much with Gary Payton II to make the Warriors interested at this price point. But Melton is a good (and versatile) basketball player, and you can never have too many of those, so if other options and more priority needs don’t materialize, he should at least be considered.
Jones Jr. had a great bounce-back year for the Mavericks and will be a priority re-singing for them. He’s not the ideal profile of wing the Warriors are likely looking for, but the 27-year-old is an uber-athletic utility wing capable of guarding multiple positions and being a dynamic play-finisher on the offensive end. He’s the ideally high-energy plug-and-play wing off the bench. Given their needs, the Warriors will likely pass on a bidding war with Dallas over Jones Jr., especially since they have the same exact spending power.
Burks has bounced around the league a bit since being the primary scorer on that dreadful 2019-20 Warriors team. He’s exactly the type of bench scorer they were looking to sign last off-season and would still be a useful addition to their bench unit for the coming season. Given that at age 33, Burks had a slight dip in production this past season, they probably wouldn’t need to utilize the entirety of this exception, potentially giving them some room to upgrade another spot using the BAE.
Lastly, we have a trio of capable backup point guards in Fultz, Morris, and Jones who I don’t think the Warriors would be interested enough to spring for the NTMLE to meet their asking price and instead look to address that need further down the salary-tier.
Tier 2 | Taxpayer MLE: Kelly Oubre Jr., Royce O’Neale, Josh Okogie, Cedi Osman, Kenyon Martin Jr., Doug McDermott, Gary Harris, Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe
Oubre Jr. had a great year for the 76ers, but after the disaster that was his tenure in Golden State, I see no chance they’re interested in a reunion.
O’Neale and Okogie are free-agent wings for a Suns team that has no feasible path to replace them, so they will likely not allow themselves to be outbid to retain their services (depending on how deep in the tax governor Ishbia is truly committed to going). If either one shakes loose, they are worth taking a loot. O’Neale is, albeit undersized, the perfect 3&D bench wing. Okogie is an athletic, defensively versatile, high-energy role player who can eat up minutes.
Osman is probably the most intriguing name in this group. He is someone the Warriors have had trade interest in the past. He’s a big 6’7 wing who has shot a career 36% from 3 and just has his best season from deep in San Antonio posting 39% on over 200 attempts. He’s very effective without the ball in his hands capable of popping up at the right place at the right time and has shown flashes of secondary playmaking potential. He’s not known for the defensive side of the ball, but isn’t a liability by any means.
Martin Jr. is another younger name the Warriors explored trading for just last summer. He’s the type of connective, athletic, versatile wing perfect coming off the bench in limited minutes as a high-energy, chance-of-pace rotation option. While not the exact profile of the player they’re looking for, he’s a good basketball player who would be useful to them.
McDermott is getting up there in age, but his consistency has yet to drop. While not much on the defensive end, he is the perfect stretch-forward with his career 41% shooting from deep and would seamlessly fit in Golden State with any combination of lineups. On top of his deadeye, he’s a cerebral player who makes good reads and would be someone Steve Kerr would absolutely love.
Theis is our first center so far who would be a sensible addition for the Warriors at a reasonable price point. While he doesn't offer the upside of a stretch-big, he at the very least has to be respected at the 3-point line and comfortably step out to the mid-range. Theis is a strong finisher around the rim, with notable passing chops, and a plus on the defensive end. He could realistically be a good fit in the Warriors starting lineup or at the least a nice understudy to Jackson-Davis.
Harris has toiled away in Orlando, but has been a consistent top-level rotation player for them and his inconsistent shot has leveled out at 37%+ the past three seasons. A bit undersized as a wing, Harris is a pest defensively and would be a useful 3&D wing off the bench.
Hayward is a curious case because the idea of him as a player is a lot better than anything he showed on the court last year. OKC specifically acquired him to supplement their championship-vying roster and he played himself out of their rotation. If he can still be the player he was only a couple of seasons ago, he would be a great pickup as a bench scorer. If he can’t be that anymore, then the Warriors should stay far away.
Lowry at this point in his career is probably not someone they would be interested in spending more than the minimum for.
Tier 3 | Bi-Annual Exception: Justin Holiday, Malik Beasley, Drew Eubanks, Robert Covington, Reggie Bullock, Nicolas Batum, Goga Bitadze, Naji Marshall, Kris Dunn, Spencer Dinwiddie
Former Warrior Holiday finished up a strong season in Denver who aren’t likely to retain them given their tax concerns. He’s no elite defensive player by any stretch of the imagination and has shown inconsistency offensively, but his ceiling as a usable mid-rotation 3&D wing makes him a solid pickup at slightly above the minimum in salary.
Beasley is someone the Warriors were interested in last summer and whose name oddly came up as a target again in a report over a month ago. He had a career year as a starter in Milwaukee and could be a useful addition with his shooting prowess despite his limited stature for his position.
Eubanks opted out of his minimum deal with the Suns in search of a better deal and fit in free agency.
Covington has been tucked away deep on depth charts these last few seasons, but was once seen as the ideal prototype 3&D wing. If he can still play up to even a fraction of that level, he would be a sensible addition.
Bullock struggled to break into the Rockets rotation last year, but like Covington is another interesting 3&D wing candidate worth a look.
Batum has been a fan-favorite target and someone the Warriors have chased after for years. He’s getting up there in age and there have been some rumblings of retirement, but perhaps the Warriors can convince him with a slight bump on the minimum to run it back for one more season.
Bitadze played himself into a rotational role for the Pacers this past season and has been a hot name on the rumor with a variety of potential suitors. He’s not quite the fit the Warriors are looking for at the position, so they probably pass.
Marshall has been a consistent rotational presence for the Pelicans as a scoring wing who can get on the boards. However, his shot has been pretty inconsistent and the Warriors probably wouldn’t be the right fit for him.
Dunn has had quite the career resurrection with the Jazz these last two seasons and will be a sought-after name on the market as a bargain addition POA defender with point guard abilities.
Dinwiddie had a significant drop in production this past season and is a bit too inefficient of a player for what the Warriors are looking for.
Tier 4 | Veteran Minimum: Jordan McLaughlin, Cam Payne, Aaron Holiday, Dennis Smith Jr., Delon Wright, Patrick Beverly, Damion Lee, Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Lonnie Walker IV, Evan Fournier, Brandon Boston Jr., Eric Gordon, Haywood Highsmith, Vlatko Čančar, Chuma Okeke, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Taurean Prince, Dom Barlow, Bol Bol, Oshae Brissett, Xavier Tillman, Precious Achiuwa, Kevin Love, Mike Muscala, Alex Len, Mason Plumlee, Moe Wagner, Andre Drummond, Mo Bamba, Luke Kornet
McLaughlin is a very under-the-radar option. He’s an extremely ball-secure point guard and hyper-efficient across the board. If available for the minimum he would be a steal.
Milton and Gordon were two players the Warriors were rumored to be interested in last year as bench-scoring options. Neither one particularly had a great season and can probably be passed on.
Highsmith has quietly worked his way up from the G League into a useful rotation piece for the Heat last year. He shot 40% from deep on almost 200 attempts while being a defensive Swiss army knife. On a bargain contract, he would be a wonderful addition.
Muscala has been a staple of this tier for me for a number of years. I still view him as the perfect backup big for the Warriors with his ability to stretch the floor, grab boards, and not negatively impact the defensive end. After a downward trending season, could this be the year he finally doesn’t re-sign with the Thunder and the Warriors can pry him away?
Len and Plumlee were two bigs the Warriors were interested in last offseason. Len is a traditional, play-finishing lob threat and imposing defensive rebounder. Plumlee is an exceptional passer for his position, who is also a tremendous rebounder in his own right. Both would be great fits as rotational centers.
Tier 5 | Training Camp: Trent Forest, JD Davidson, Jeff Dowtin Jr., Patty Mills, Duane Washington, Xavier Moon, Collin Gillespie, Kira Lewis, Talen Horton-Tucker, Wesley Matthews, Garrett Temple, Charlie Brown Jr., DaQuan Jeffries, Buddy Boeheim, Svi Mykhailiuk, Jamal Cain, Jordan Nwora, Javonte Green, Kevon Harris, Kendall Brown, Lamar Stevens, Stanley Umude, Anthony Gil, Braxton Key, TJ Warren, Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, Danilo Gallinari, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Micah Potter, Luka Samanic, Moussa Diabaté, James Johnson, Thad Young, Taj Gibson, Tristan Vukcevic, Damian Jones, Moses Brown, Chimeze Metu, Cody Zeller, JaVale McGee, Bismack Biyombo, JT Thor, Udoka Azubuike, Tristan Thompson, Boban Marjanović, Nate Hinton, Jermaine Samuels
Mykhailiuk would be an intriguing camp invite as a big, sweet-shooting wing. Javonte Green and Jamal Cain would be interesting camp invites as uber-athletic, defensively versatile wings. Patty Mills and Danilo Gallinari are two players the Warriors have shown interest in the past and would’ve been great fits in their heyday as players, but could still be worth a sniff. Boeheim, Harris, Umude, Key, Potter, and Vukcevic are all two-way eligible and would be solid additions at that level.
Verdict
Ideal Targets: Tobias Harris, Kyle Anderson
Realistic NTMLE Additions: Alec Burks, Doug McDermott
Realistic TMLE Additions: Cedi Osman, Daniel Theis
Realistic BAE Additions: Justin Holiday, Nic Batum
Realistic Minimum Additions: Haywood Highsmith, Mike Muscala
Buy-Low Candidates: Robert Covington, Gordon Hayward
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