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Ever since the start of the Curry Era — I would call it After Curry but that sounds like the protocol for the post-ingestion process of an Indian dish — the NBA has become a three-point-shooter’s league. Long gone are the days of passing up open looks for an easy drive to the basket, as are the days of settling for the oh-so-nice mid-range jumper. Instead, the game continues to push itself further and further away from the actual three-point line in an effort to break the limits of the game’s offensive capabilities.
This past season, the Celtics won the championship while taking a league-high 42.5 three-pointers per game, while the 2nd place team in that metric was their Finals opponents, the Dallas Mavericks. Since the downtown heave isn’t going away anytime soon, I figured it would be fitting to reflect on this past season’s best three-point shooters — but not in the way you think.
You see, I could simply give you a list of the top players by three-point percentage and call it a day. In that case, Dante Exum would likely be your guy based solely upon his 49% shot from deep (which is ridiculously impressive). However, for the sake of variety, I’ve decided to focus on the guys who don’t just make their three-pointers, but make them from deeeeeeeep range.
Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a great way to quantify how well players shoot from deep overall other than combining a few percentages and tracking stats and eyeballing it, at least not in the public domain. While I’m sure some statistical guys like the folks over at (now former basketball site) 538 and Grantland (RIP) may have come up with something similar during their writing time, I haven’t been able to find anything. So I dug up the data and formed a new (very simple) proprietary metric for everyone to use: SNIPR.
SNIPR, or Shooting Net Integrated Proximity Rating for, uh, long, is meant to show just how effective each individual player is at scoring from long-range. Here’s how it works:
Field Goals Made (FGM) and Attempted (FGA):
This is the basic stuff and will come into play a little later with a secondary SNIPR metric.
Weighting by Distance:
Shots are categorized by distance via the NBA website’s tracking data. Here are the categories:
Less than 5 feet
5 to 9 feet
10 to 14 feet
15 to 19 feet
20 to 24 feet
25 to 29 feet
Each distance range is assigned a weight, with longer distances generally given higher weights due to their increased difficulty. The lower weights (less than 5 feet and 5 to 9 feet) count for less than 1% but do indeed count so we don’t end up with any ratings of 0.
Shooting percentages from each range are taken into account, but are emphasized more on deeper shots.
The end formula turns out like this:
= (LessThan5FG_Made * 0.1 * SQRT(LessThan5FG_Attempts)) + (5to9FG_Made * 0.2 * SQRT(5to9FG_Attempts)) + (10to14FG_Made * 2.5 * SQRT(10to14FG_Attempts)) + (15to19FG_Made * 2.8 * SQRT(15to19FG_Attempts)) + (20to24FG_Made * 3.9 * SQRT(20to24FG_Attempts)) + (25to29FG_Made * 4 * SQRT(25to29FG_Attempts))= SNIPRSNIPR is then normalized on a scale of 1-100, with 100 being the best and 1 being the worst, as you might assume.
With all of the precursor stuff out of the way, let’s take a look at this year’s top long-range snipers via SNIPR…
The 2023-24 Season’s SNIPR Champs
Yes, as always, Stephen Curry dominates a metric dominated by deep threes. Such is the nature of the beast. Also, Luka Doncic finds his way to the top here — unsurprisingly.
Outside of that, however, you find some really interesting insights. For one, there’s been a lot of talk about Klay Thompson’s supposed demise (if I see one more “0/10 in elimination game” comment on Instagram or Twitter I will combust), yet he pops up in the top 5 in SNIPR this season — so the man still has some long-range game in him even if the other aspects of his game have faltered to a certain degree.
I find Kevin Durant’s inclusion intriguing as well, though mid-range shots do influence SNIPR to a certain degree, as the metric is influenced by distance as well as efficiency. Durant shot 41% on threes this year (absurd for his height) but you don’t typically consider him a deep-three-taker. Yet, the metrics don’t lie.
CJ McCollum also had a largely under-the-radar shooting season on the Pelicans, mostly due to the attention diverted to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram’s pairing (and health). Case in point, McCollum shot over 41% on shots 25-29 feet away from the basket, in Payton Pritchard terms, is right here:
In other words, McCollum is elite from range, which I think is something we’ve forgotten since his Trail Blazers days. That off-ball shooting will become a crucial part of him thriving alongside new Pelican Dejounte Murray, so make sure to watch out for that.
Lastly, note Paul George’s inclusion here. George’s three-point shot is an incredibly underrated part of his game (we mostly focus on the mid-range game, I suppose), and now that he’s entered free agency, contending teams in need of floor spacing will likely be beating down his door.
However, there’s an inherent problem with the normal version of SNIPR: it tends to emphasize stars who take a lot of shots. While this isn’t inherently bad, it does drown out a lot of the league’s best bench sharpshooters — so I’ve made another metric. Say hello to Low Volume SNIPR.
Into The SNIPRVerse
What Low Volume SNIPR does is simple. It’s pretty much a copy of SNIPR, but takes into account a player’s shot diet. For example, if a player only takes 2 deep threes per game, but those 2 deep threes account for 50% of his total shots, his shots will be weighed more heavily than a player who takes 2 deep threes per game but averages 18 total attempts. Overall, it’s meant to eliminate the high-volume outliers…though, as you’re about to see, sometimes you can be just too good to leave the top of the SNIPR tower. Take a look at the top 10 players from the 2023-24 season in Low Volume SNIPR:
Low Volume SNIPR Leaders
Stephen Curry - 100.00
Luke Kennard - 88.99
Luka Doncic - 88.68
Klay Thompson - 85.53
CJ McCollum - 83.33
Sam Merrill - 81.13
Donte DiVincenzo - 80.50
Sam Hauser - 80.19
Fred VanVleet - 79.56
Paul George - 77.99
Once again, Steph Curry finds his way to the top — don’t expect anything less from the greatest shooter to ever touch the hardwood. Thankfully, a lot of other slots on the list are mixed up here compared to regular SNIPR.
For one, Luke Kennard skyrockets to second-best in Low Volume SNIPR, which can be attributed to both his absurd efficiency from deep (45%) and that over 55% of his shots come from the 25-29 feet range. Kennard has a team option with the Grizzlies that has just been declined exercised, and the cost to sort out a new contract with him may be quite costly considering his production.
The two Sams — Sam Hauser and Sam Merrill — also show up on this list for similar reasons. The 6-foot-8 Hauser, who was on the Celtics’ championship squad, shot over 42% on catch-and-shoot threes last season and was one of the key pieces in keeping Boston’s floor spacing alive with Porzingis off the floor.
Merrill, who actually won a championship with the Bucks before signing with the Cavaliers, appears to be a nice Mr. Irrelevant story, seeing as he was drafted 60th overall in 2020. The Cav shot a ridiculous 44% on catch-and-shoot threes, 40% on downtown shots in general, and 40% on 25+ feet deep shots. He’s going into the last year of his contract with the Cavaliers but will likely warrant an extension this season if Cleveland is willing to play ball.
Other than those few guys, the rest of the list is relatively normal. CJ McCollum and Klay Thompson show up once again, as does Paul George. Knicks flamethrower Donte DiVincenzo also joins the party here along with Fred VanVleet, who had an underrated season from three with the Rockets.
As an aside, to show you just how crazy far ahead Stephen Curry is from everybody, take a look at this chart that compares normal SNIPR to Low Volume SNIPR (he’s in that top-right corner, though you might miss him if you don’t look hard enough):
Random Insights From SNIPR
While I couldn’t find big enough narratives to write related to these takeaways (yet), I think they’re significant nonetheless:
Brandon Ingram is in the 81st percentile for SNIPR, yet is in the 28th percentile for deep threes (25-29 feet) attempted. In other words, he could up his three-point attempt rate and probably become an even better offensive player.
SNIPR correlates well with Dunks and Threes’ Offensive EPM metric, with a correlation coefficient of 0.79.
Franz Wagner has the largest negative gap between SNIPR and deep threes attempted. He’s in the, uh, 1st percentile for the former and the 42nd percentile for the latter. Simply put, he’s taking too many threes for his pedigree.
Mikal Bridges is in a similar camp as Brandon Ingram, though he takes a few more deep threes. The Knicks’ spacing between him, Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Josh Hart is going to be elite.
Another intriguing point: The data implies that in order to stay in the league longer nowadays, you have to be a good three-point shooter. Case in point, the percentage of players with 80th percentile or greater Low Volume SNIPR scores generally increases as players get to their primes and doesn’t fall off significantly with age:
Also via the chart above: Don’t worry if your young players can’t shoot yet. It’s okay. It’s normal.
If you want to take a look at the data in its entirety, I’ve embedded the table below. Let me know if you have any insights!
